What are the key factors that lure people to Reform, and what can we do to challenge this lure?

Part One – Are we heading for fascism?

“First they fascinate the fools, then they muzzle the intelligent.”
Bertrand Russell

I read many of George Orwell’s novels and essays around 50 years ago, in my early twenties, and found them very powerful—most notably Burmese Days, Homage to Catalonia, Down and Out in Paris and London, Animal Farm, and 1984. I have recently re-read them, and they resonate with me now more than ever, especially 1984, which feels prophetic of our current predicament, with the US. woefully leading the fascist charge. I highly recommend reading this Observer article, which is linked to Orwell’s work.

George Orwell viewed directed hatred as a powerful tool for manipulation and control in a totalitarian state, a central theme in his novel 1984. This manufactured emotion serves to distract the populace from their actual oppression and consolidates power in the ruling Party.

‘Who controls the past,’ ran the Party slogan, ‘controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.’ We only have to look at the nonsense Trump utters to see that in operation.

Doublethink is hard-wired and is only one step away from cognitive dissonance, where slight discomfort is evident in holding contradictory views. We see these contradictions so often with our proto-fascists, which may cause unease in their followers, but are quickly forgotten as fascists move rapidly onto the next crisis they generate or jump on a new, noisy bandwagon. We are seeing so much of this now from the US Have MAGA forgotten Epstein? Even to understand the word ‘doublethink’ involves the use of doublethink. Four examples of doublethink used throughout 1984 include the slogans: “War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery”, “Ignorance is Strength”, and “2 + 2 = 5”.

Here’s a recent case of “Ignorance is Strength” being actualised:

Net migration to the UK fell by more than two-thirds to a post-pandemic low in the year ending June 2025, but 67% of people polled thought it had increased. Among Reform voters, four in five thought immigration had grown, and more than three in five (63%) believed it had ‘increased significantly.

And another recent example from Trump:

Trump used Davos recently to unleash a torrent of ludicrous claims and outright lies, but one was so obviously false it cannot be left unchallenged. He told world leaders that China is “too smart” for wind power, that it has no wind farms, and only sells turbines to everyone else—even though China has the largest wind fleet on Earth and generates an enormous share of its electricity from it, on a scale that dwarfs most countries’ entire power systems.

Coincidentally, Farage was also at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, allegedly railing against the rich elites he frequently denigrates, while representing the interests of Sasan Ghandehari, an Iranian-born British billionaire venture capitalist and art collector. Farage’s lavish expenses, yet to be declared, to attend WEF were funded by this rich elite billionaire. I wonder if any of his fan base noticed or cared about such a visible contradiction on display? Let’s be clear: Farage is one of the rich elites, and he grifts off them.

The main message of George Orwell's 1984 is a warning against the dangers of totalitarian government and the erosion of individual freedoms through state control. The novel shows how a government can use propaganda, constant surveillance, and the manipulation of truth to achieve absolute power and destroy independent thought, leading to a society where individuality and personal relationships are crushed.

The White House would like you to believe ICE killed a domestic terrorist in self-defence.

In 1984, Orwell wrote: “The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.

Psychological theories on fascism identify several common threads, often centred around the following emotional drivers, which I found in an internet search:

• Fear and Insecurity: Economic hardship or social unrest can create anxiety, making individuals susceptible to simplistic solutions offered by strong leaders.

• Authoritarianism: The German social psychologist and psychoanalyst Erich Fromm described a personality structure that seeks security in a higher authority and is characterised by duty and obedience.

• Leader Worship: A charismatic leader becomes the symbol of hope, demanding an emotional tie from followers and creating a fact-proof worldview.

• Scapegoating Coupled with Propaganda: The creation of an external enemy to unify the in-group, along with the use of propaganda to suppress critical thinking and distort reality. Orwell spoke of ‘directed hatred.’

Using this simple aide-memoire, are we witnessing elements of fascism gaining traction here in the UK? There is plenty of evidence that we are on the journey.

UKIP and Reform, with Farage as leader, have exhibited several fascist tendencies. They identify specific groups to highlight and blame for problems in society. The culture wars offer groups to denigrate, direct blame, and provide another opportunity to foment division.

Even leading ‘Leave’ campaigner Michael Gove said he "shuddered" when he saw UKIP's "breaking point" anti-EU poster showing a long queue of migrants fleeing from the horrific Syrian conflict. Gove was justice secretary in 2016 and joined a number of politicians attacking the poster, featuring a photo taken in Slovenia, with George Osborne saying it had "echoes" of 1930s' literature. Farage, then the UKIP leader, defended it, saying it was "the truth." He said it was "about us being part of a European Union that isn't working."

In 2016, Farage, as a prominent figure in the Leave campaign, was highly critical of the European Union's influence on British sovereignty. In total contradiction, he is very open to financial support from foreigners, notably the US, who want to see significant changes in our democracy, promoting the Trump brand of authoritarian nationalism which aligns with Reform. A petition demanding a full inquiry into Russian influence in UK politics has surged past 100,000 signatures after being shared at remarkable speed across social media. It will be debated in the Commons next month. Let’s hope the ISC Russian report is re-opened and investigates the influence of Putin on Brexit and its possible links with the Leave campaign and subsequent Russian influences on our democracy.

Since 2016, asylum claimants – a significant proportion of whom have taken the irregular route by making the perilous journey across the English Channel in small boats – have been vilified and dehumanised, labelled as ‘illegals’, ‘criminals’, and, if male, of ‘fighting age’ and therefore ptential terrorists. This is the stuff of directed hatred, and we saw the result of this in July 2024 with the appalling violence towards asylum claimant hotels across the country, which in some instances is still ongoing. The incitement of violence and actual violence from misinformation on social media led to many convictions. Police data released under freedom of information laws shows that 41% of 899 people arrested for taking part in the violent disorder last July and August had been reported for crimes associated with intimate partner violence.

Why is Farage so effective, and what are we up against?

Many who feel left behind and are struggling with the basics of a decent living will say, “politicians are all the same”, and are therefore open to politicians offering a radical change in the way politics is done to improve their lives.

It’s very easy for those of us who are immersed in the complexity of politics to forget that most people are not open to facts and figures.

We progressives are passionately against what he stands for, so we need to understand the appeal of Farage. This could be challenging for us, as we are so engrossed with all the myths, half-truths, and lies he spouts, coupled with legendary hypocrisy. However, we should try to understand his appeal to the public much more and think of ways to combat that.

There are a few attributes I have noticed: he smiles, laughs, and enjoys engaging with people more than most politicians. He is certainly comfortable in his own skin, making people feel reassured and seem like someone down to earth.

Farage’s appeal covers a broad spectrum – from the man in the pub with a cigarette, using ‘common sense’ to put the world to rights, to ordinary people who may be friends or those we are friendly with in our communities, through to the very well-off. By using ideas generated by right-wing think tanks and rich funders at home and abroad, he gets more of those on side too. Reform is also funded by Big Oil, which informs their denial of anthropogenic rapid climate heating. They use the Trump term: it’s a ‘hoax’. According to analysis of Reform’s donations register by the New York Times (NYT), the party raised £4.75m in 2024, 40% of which came from people who have “openly questioned climate change or have investments in fossil fuel or other climate-polluting industries.”

He certainly conveys his political messages well, with a nodding certainty over the ‘facts’ he shares and the ‘common sense’ solutions he offers to problems he and his ilk have identified – usually exaggerated or even manufactured as non-issues. For example, the talking down of London, our great capital city, which is an economic powerhouse and cosmopolitan multicultural success story. It’s a world-leading city, always high up in the popularity rankings in annual global surveys. While London experiences higher than national average rates of robbery and theft, it is generally safer in terms of violent, injury-causing crime compared to the national average of England and Wales – approximately 1.1 per 100,000 people (2025), representing the lowest total since 2014. It compares very well with other huge global cities such as New York.

People have had years of red, blue, and green, so the turquoise colour Reform has branded itself with is a refreshing, contemporary colour which appeals. This sounds superficial, but I suggest it works.

The picture that is emerging is of a person and party that represents what people want from their politics – a refreshing new brand of politics, regardless of what Farage says and does. The media over-platforms him. Farage has appeared on BBC's Question Time numerous times, with figures in late 2024 and early 2025 placing his total at around 38 or 39 appearances, making him one of the programme's most frequent guests. GB News is not news; it’s a right-wing propaganda operation funded by rich elites, which is odd as Farage claims he’s a man of the people and fighting the elites. Nigel Farage has been paid £330,000 by GB News in the last year alone. He's deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC. His many contradictions and hypocrisies require his growing fan base to have selective amnesia and cognitive dissonance, which is close to ‘doublethink’.

Many people aren’t really interested in the serious complexities of politics; however, Farage’s simple promises to the nation, delivered with conviction and ‘common sense’, will seem very refreshing. Uppermost, the directed blame for all the nation’s problems is focused on ruthlessly controlling borders, keeping immigrants and migrants out, and putting the struggling British people – who are left behind by failed elitist politicians – first. Supposedly, this will make our country great again, returning us to utopia. So, where in time was this great British utopia? They trust Farage rather like a cult leader and have total blind faith that he will deliver, thus eliciting an unquestioning, emotional, feel-good response.

Howard Porter of Devon Compass United said to me a few weeks ago: “I think a big factor in the support for Trump and Reform is loss of status and self-esteem. White working-class and middle-class people feel economically threatened by migrants and that they are treated unfairly. They feel that government (and elites) care more about migrants and minorities than them. They are left behind, whereas refugees are given expensive hotel rooms.

“They resent what they see as asymmetric treatment. This is one of the reasons people can say they are not racist – because they don't feel personal animosity to people of colour – but they do feel they are being taken for suckers and that undeserving people are getting an unfair advantage. To make things worse, they are led to believe that migrants are probably criminals and sex offenders, which compounds their undeserving nature and doubles their threat.

“The poor, downtrodden English are seeing their status eroded, their traditions traduced, and their identity undermined, so they cling to the flag as a mark of their rightful entitlement.”

It was great to read Howard’s thinking, as it resonated totally with me.

Reform are currently at around 24% in the polls according to YouGov, which still exceeds Labour and the Conservatives by quite a margin. However, the polls have slipped from the highs exceeding 30% in the autumn. The reasons for this are Farage’s school-day racism, anti-Semitism, and aping of Nazism, which 34 of his former school contemporaries have reported. Farage dismisses them as ‘schoolboy banter’. He is yet to apologise to the victims of his bullying, which he was doing up to his late teens in 1982, at the prestigious and elitist Dulwich College.

He is also being held more to account by reporters, but not sufficiently enough in my view. In addition, his close MEP colleague and Welsh Reform leader, Nathan Gill, was convicted for working for Putin’s Russia to promote their interests in the European Parliament. This will not have helped Reform, punching a large hole in its credibility as a patriotic party with the UK’s best interests at heart.

I am also pleased to report, from recent research, that right-wing movements in the UK are struggling to gain support among graduates, as education emerges as the most important dividing line in British attitudes towards politics, diversity, and immigration. In addition, a study from the independent National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) found people with qualifications below A-level were more than twice as likely to support right-wing parties compared with those with qualifications above. With this in mind, we must avoid insulting Reform followers on their intelligence; ad hominem and belittling comments simply won’t work – it will merely entrench their views. Calling someone a ‘thick Gammon’ simply isn’t going to cut it.

Richard Toller, also a member of Devon Compass United, said this, which totally accords with me:

“It’s better to say that they're responding on an emotional level. We may win some over on factual arguments, but we need to put a good emotional case.”

We also need to be armed with the policy agenda that Reform actually has, informed by its voting record in Parliament. In addition, what is its record like in the 10 councils it currently runs?

These councils have copied the DOGE model as per Elon Musk in the US. In fact, Musk has offered funding to Reform and made appalling comments about PM Starmer. Trump’s antipathy to anthropogenic climate heating is evident in his cutting of Net Zero commitments. Farage is close to Trump and admires Putin, so he will be inspired and emboldened as a future leader by these tyrants. We have a working model of how Trump’s authoritarian and outright fascist approach to tackling ‘illegal’ immigration and trashing of the rule of international law as their modus operandi, and that will hopefully help persuade a significant number to see Farage for what he is. However, there is no cause for complacency, and we need to develop a strategy that will engage with Reform, mindful of what we have said in this piece.

All this will be the focus of our conference on February 21st in Exeter.

Dave Sharratt, February 2026

Next time: Some Ideas for the way forward

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The Budget 2025, resignation and misogyny

by Dave Shartatt, December 2025

Let’s take a look at the recent budget finally delivered last Wednesday with an unhelpful early release from the OBR who admit leadership issues and its CEO has just resigned.

Despite the last two months of damaging media hype making numerous claims and counter claims about what Reeves was or wasn’t proposing with her being mocked or written off, a fully costed budget was delivered with sensible headroom built in. Despite the OBR erroneously releasing it, no markets were rocked. Interest rates look stable and are predicted to slowly fall over the next few years. Some good moves on poorer families; minimum wage rises for younger people; the triple lock retained; some useful cost of living measures and a mansion tax for houses over £2 million. These modest measures will help to stabilise an economy bruised by Brexit and 14 years of grinding austerity undermining the public services that many less well off people depend on.

Add the crony corruption of PPE procurement and the lavish spending on ‘test and trace’, it is gratifying to know that action is now being taken against those who cashed in on Johnson’s largesse.

Gone are the days when proper analysis of the Chancellor’s options, with likely outcomes discussed with economic experts. Now it’s a feeding frenzy of tittle tattle to fill an insatiable news cycle.

Here is the Observer’s view on yesterday’s budget:

"Looking back on the past three sorry months that have brought an embattled chancellor and a worried country to this budget, however, the OBR has much to answer for.

"It was created, after all, by George Osborne in order to make sure the bond markets have confidence that the Treasury’s numbers can be trusted. But the back and forth from the OBR on economic forecasts has had the opposite effect: in recent months, there has been growing speculation of a UK debt crisis, and even the possibility of the chancellor having to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund for a bailout…’

With regard to the resignation of Richard Hughes, see the quote from the BBC News report:

"The chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has resigned following the Budget day error which saw a key document published early. Richard Hughes said in his resignation letter he took 'full responsibility' or the issues that were identified in the OBR's investigation.

'That investigation found the early publication of the OBR's forecasts was the worst failure in the organisation's 15-year history.

'It comes as Sir Keir Starmer defended the chancellor against claims she misled the public, after the OBR published a letter on Friday revealing it had told Treasury that higher wages would help meet the government's financial rules."

Mark Johnson, who studied economics, and a former business owner who lives in Devon and is a follower of Compass Northern Devon said in response to the resignation..

"So, this fella has resigned for being the boss at the time of the sh@tshow last week, releasing a budget before the Chancellor.

“True, it’s admittedly spectacularly useless BUT nothing like as useless as an organisation that has been in existence for 15 years, supposedly to provide a full, independent analysis of the British economy, who seem to have forgotten to look at productivity during the whole time of the previous Government.

“They are economists, productivity should be in every forecast, it’s core to the discipline that they profess to be experts in. Did they miss the fact that our whole investment and business confidence had been turned upside down by the Brexit vote until now or that austerity had had a massive effect on training, education and government investment in capital projects.

“Where have they been? Mars? Clacton? Did they sleep through Covid?

“This guy has been in charge for 5 years. Now that is a resigning matter."

There have been many budgets where claims are made that money is tight, black holes have been touted by the press and they have speculated on what the chancellor may or may not do. Then a rabbit is sprung out of a hat on the day which isn’t as bad as the collective expectation. I cannot recall many previous chancellors being accused of being as misleading as Ms Reeves with calls seeking immediate resignation.

Rachel Reeves is the first female chancellor and very early on in her time the job, ‘Rachel from accounts’ was out there which was unfair and sexist The level of criticism levelled at her more or less from the outset feels like misogyny at work.

But lets look at some previous efforts. Never forge that would be PM, Nigel Farage said Liz Truss' mini-budget was "the best Conservative budget since 1986". That quote didn’t age well like many of his quotes. The bond markets crashed, interest rates hiked, Kwasi Kwarteng was sacked as Chancellor of the Exchequer on October 14, 2022, with Prime Minister, Liz Truss going on 25 October. The market turmoil unleashed by Kwarteng's "mini-budget" was spectacular but, compaired to this, Rachel Reeves did pretty well really... justt don't tell the press!

Here’s a reminder of the praise heaped on the Truss/Kwarteng disaster in comparison to the treatment of Rachel Reeves’ recent budge.

Trump's tariffs and his ability to lead

By Dave Sharratt

So, it turns out that throwing the global economy into disarray without warning or, it appears, any sensible logical rationale, is a very bad idea indeed. In fact, it’s such a poor idea that even the extraordinarily inept occupant of the White House finally noticed.  

This has to be the U.S. equivalent of the foot-shooting Brexit moment but at great speed in its impact on the U.S. Perhaps Trump didn’t notice that his admirer, ex-PM Liz Truss, spooked the markets with her very wonky budget leading to her speedy resignation. Did Trump and his advisers not know that China held £759 billion of U.S. debt? Some analysts and investors feared that China could dump these debts in retaliation to anything Trump throws at them.

After Trump’s introduction of sweeping tariffs, prompting economic retaliation from across the planet he did a swift about turn to mollify a plunging stock market with a cooling-off on the global trade war Trump had so recklessly begun. High tariffs on almost 60 countries are being suspended for 90 days, though some will remain in place, as well as the baseline 10% charge on all imports to the US.

After days of tumbling turmoil the markets rallied, though confidence in the stability of the US administration is likely to remain very wobbly for the foreseeable future.

On top of this, the whole debacle also led to market speculation and some direct accusations that this was an insider trading scam on a global scale. It’s a ‘great time to buy’ said Trump.

The EU chose to suspend its retaliatory action which were originally drafted in response to the original tariffs levied by Trump earlier in his Presidency.

More than 75 countries reached out to Washington seeking negotiations when the US tariffs were announced, so Trump’s administration is likely to be kept busy for some time. The EU is among those preparing for negotiations, though it seems Brussels has no intention of going in on the back foot. The UK hedged and played for time by taking the decision to hold on any threats of retaliation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU want’s ‘to give negotiations a chance’, and ‘if negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in’.

It was with some relief that a global financial crisis has been, hopefully, averted for now. However Trump would do well not to underestimate the teeth behind the EU’s preference for negotiation. Let's see if his narcissistic reasoning is up to the challenge.  

A timeline of chaos

3rd April
The BBC reports that Donald Trump's politics have shifted considerably over his decades in the public sphere. But one thing he has been consistent on, since the 1980s, is his belief that tariffs are an effective means of boosting the US economy.

9th April

Trump pauses plans to hike US tariffs on most countries except China.

Trump says he will raise US tariffs on Chinese exports to 125% and unveils 90-day pause for other countries.

Trump pauses plans to hike US tariffs on most countries except China
.

April 10th
The EU responds by suspending its retaliatory 25% tariffs.

EU suspends retaliatory 25% tariffs on US goods after Trump U-turn.

April 10th
Donald Trump is facing accusations of market manipulation after posting on social media that it was a “great time to buy”

April 22nd
Donald Trump’s tariffs have unleashed a “major negative shock” into the world economy, the International Monetary Fund has said, as it cut its forecasts for US, UK and global growth.

Robert Reich, a U.S. Democrat and former Secretary for Labor, is an esteemed reporter on Trump and his questionable abilities. Follow him on Facebook

Dave Sharratt
April 2025

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Could Citizens’ Assemblies help to repair our broken democracy?
By Dave Sharratt

Ancient Athens applied deliberative democracy with the belief that political decisions should be a result of fair and reasonable discussion among its citizens. Unfortunately excluding women and slaves! Thankfully we have moved on from that, but we took our time, with women securing the right to vote a mere 100 years ago.

Citizens’ assemblies are carefully designed bring together a diverse group of people, randomly selected, to listen to credible and balanced expert information. Giving them the time to debate the issues and trade-offs with one another in facilitated discussions. This can lead to more legitimate outcomes with more informed and engaged participants.

One of the most successful and compelling examples in recent years has been the Irish citizens’ assembly on constitutional reform. This cleared the way for the referendum on abortion. The people listened to the recommendation made by assembly members and voted for change. In addition, there have been several other citizens’ assemblies run on issues ranging  from assisted dying to tackling the climate crisis.

Other countries have applied citizens’ assemblies and according to the OECD 320 citizens’ assemblies and juries have been held since 1986 across local, regional and national levels. There is plenty of best practice experience for government to draw on to create an honest, well-informed dialogue on thorny issues connecting the electorate with our politicians.

The Labour Party has made a commitment to apply the citizens’ assembly model to address the democratic deficit and disconnect with the electorate. They are looking closely at the Irish model and it is hoped that within the first 100 days of their tenure there will be a roll out of citizens’ assemblies.

Sue Gray (Downing Street Chief of Staff) said in February 2024:
"The citizens’ assemblies could be used to get agreement on House of Lords reform, give more powers to directly elected mayors and draw up regional-development plans to support house building".
She continued: “This is one way we can help resolve these questions by involving communities at an early stage". Let us hope the Government delivers on this.

See the article from the Constitution Society on this issue HERE>